$MWIDE: Is it Still Okay to Accumulate Shares?

This post for MWIDE is a response to the request of our Facebook page follower. If you are still unaware about QuantDS Free Analysis feature, you can read the full details and instructions on the right hand side of this blog page.

We will show you our brief review, research, and outlook for MWIDE including their Financial Report for 1H of 2016, their role and status on the infrastructure industry, our review on the company's stock price last week, and our technical & Quantitative Analysis that can help you answer the question, "Is it still okay to accumulate MWIDE shares?".

MWIDE Revenue at All-Time High

The construction segment of MWIDE delivered an all-time high revenue for a half-year period from January to June this 2016 because the bigger number of projects are in the super-structure stage compared to 1H of 2015 while airport operations segment reached a double-digit growth in passenger traffic.

MWIDE's record-breaking 1H 2016 consolidated revenue increased to Php10.07-billion or a 77% growth compared to the same period last year, with the core construction business still contributing the bulk of the revenue at 91%. Consolidated net income for the same period increased to Php1.178-billion or 49% higher than 1H 2015 consolidated net income of Php790-million. Construction revenues also improved climbing to Php9.17-billion or 84% from Php4.98-billion last year.

ITEM 1H 2015 1H2016 % DIFFERENCE
Consolidated Revenue (Php) 5.70B 10.07B 77%
Consolidated Net Income (Php) 790M 1.178B 49%
Construction Revenues (Php) 4.98B 9.17B 84%

MWIDE on INFRA LEADERSHIP

MWIDE posted their highest growth last year 2015 since its IPO (Initial Public Offering) in February 2011. Construction contracts for 2015 surpassed the previous year's figure at Php37.73-billion or a huge 114% growth. Driven by MWIDES' first full-year recognition from its airport operations and a 16% growth in its core construction business, consolidated new income also increased 66% to Php1.47-billion last year from Php887-million in 2014.

For infrastructures, the company is slated to start its Php3.50-billion Southwest Integrated Transport System or SWITS project this 4Q of 2016 and earmarked for completion by 2018. The SWITS is PPP (Public-Private Partnership) project seen by the Philippine government as one of the long-term solutions to help reduce the intensifying traffic in Metro Manila that costs our economy around Php3.00-billion per day. It is located at the Cavitex (Cavite Expressway) in Parañaque City. MWIDE is already a diversified engineering firm currently building on its credential as an infrastructure developer and is looking forward to partner with the government in other proposed PPP projects.

MWIDE's Mactan-Cebu International Airport (MCIA) Terminal 2 project is reportedly proceeding on schedule and will increase the airport's capacity to 12.5 million passengers annually. They took over the operations of MCIA with Bangalore-based partner GMR Infrastructure Limited in November 2014 and only after a year of handover, the MCIA airport was already considered as the 18th best airport in Asia in a passenger survey conducted last year. Not only that, MCIA also already garnered international awards including the Best Transport Deal award and the Transport Deal of the Year award from Project Finance International and Euromoney-IJGlobal.

Megawide is also increasing its presence in the Renewable Energy market and they have already delivered three (3) solar farms in Cebu, Bataan, and Negros Occidental with a combined capacity of more than 100MWs.

According to Megawide COO Edgar Saavedra,

"Outlook in the Philippine construction market remains positive. Rising growth in the residential sector is expected to continue, while the BPO industry is seen to sustain the demand for office space."

Price Review

Here's the review of how MWIDE performed last week. (Click photos to enlarge.)

  • Monday (19 Sep 2016)

The previous close price of MWIDE was 14.90 which is higher than the Uptrend Hold price of 14.80 last Monday, so it means that stock price was holding on its upward trend. We also recommended a Buy @ Uptrend Support but our computation for Confidence Level (% certainty) was only 40%. The price fell down to 13.70 and closed on our Projected Decline price at 14.00, losing -6.04% day-to-day.

MWIDE Stock Chart

MWIDE (19Sep2016)

  • Tuesday (20 Sep 2016)

The previous day was a bad day for MWIDE, declining by more than -6%, but the price managed to stay above its Bottom Support price level at 13.30. Our recommendation was also changed from Buy @ Uptrend Support to Trigger Sell but if you look at the Confidence Level (% certainty), it was below 50%. The price moved up to 14.40 below closing at 14.26 or a 1.86% gain from the previous day.

MWIDE Stock Chart

MWIDE (20Sep2016)

  • Wednesday (21 Sep 2016)

Our recommendation for MWIDE was Trigger Sell with 54% certainty but the price managed to breach above the two key resistances - the Projected Price Advance at 14.58 and the Price Trigger at 14.75. MWIDE closed last Wednesday at 14.94, gaining 4.77% from on daily basis.

MWIDE Stock Chart

MWIDE (21Sep2016)

  • Thursday (22 Sep 2016)

The opening price was in between Uptrend Hold and Tranche Sell (Profit Taking) levels last Thursday. Because of this, we generated a High Risk Buy recommendation for MWIDE but the Confidence Level (% certainty) is only 40%.  The price was able to hold above the Price Trigger at 14.89 and rising up to 15.34 before closing near Projected Upward Price Trigger.

MWIDE Stock Chart

MWIDE (22Sep2016)

  • Friday (23 Sep 2016)

After four days of gains for the PSE index, Friday closed on red territory decreasing 38.75 points. All Shares also dropped by -0.35% with MWIDE reducing -1.32%. We think that profit taking of traders and investors is the reason for this. MWIDE hit 15.38 (which was our Projected Upward Price Trigger) and 15.40 before falling down to 14.88. The 14.98 closing price is still above the Uptrend Hold price at 14.82.

MWIDE Stock Chart

MWIDE (23Sep2016)

Summary:

It was a bad start of the previous trading week for MWIDE, almost hitting Bottom Support level (13.30). But the stock price managed to pull back upward and stay above the uptrend price.

Chart Analysis

MWIDE Daily Chart

MWIDE Daily Chart

MWIDE started its strong uptrend only this July 2016 and rising more than double in less than three months. It looks like that the stock price will continue on its healthy trend as long as it will not break below the primary support levels at 13.70 and 13.40. A higher low was formed and a breach above its immediate resistance level at 15.80 is needed to confirm an uptrend continuation. The next resistance is at 16.48. RSI and Stochastic are neutral while MACD is above the zero line.

MWIDE Quant Outlook

QuantDS MWIDE Forecast

MWIDE Quantitative Analysis Result for Sep. 26, 2016 (1/2)

QuantDS MWIDE Forecast

MWIDE Quantitative Analysis Result for Sep. 26, 2016 (2/2)

Looking at the results of our Quantitative Analysis above, the closing price of MWIDE last week is exactly at the Projected Downward Price Trigger. Due to this, we generated a Trigger Buy for the stock, but take note that the Confidence Level (% certainty) is only 37%. There is a bigger chance that the price will not hold above the Price Trigger and move down. Prices to watch are 14.84, 14.60, and a breach below 14.56 is considered as a bearish reversal.

But if the stock price will hold strongly above its current price, then the Trigger Buy recommendation is advisable to follow. The next Price Trigger is 15.12, while the Projected Advance Price is 15.85.

Watch MWIDE closely as the price is exactly where it is best to accumulate, but it needs another day to hold or rise on its current price to add certainty that the stock will continue its healthy uptrend.

 

How about you, do you think MWIDE will continue on its positive trend? Will you buy MWIDE today? Please feel free to share your thoughts by leaving your comments below.


 

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